2019 Rock Hall Nominees Analysis and Final Predictions
A month removed from the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame’s announcement for the 2019 Nominees, I think this is one of the better ballots produced by the nominating committee in a few years. Every artist nominated has a strong and viable case for induction, but sadly only five (maybe six) will receive the honors. As Alan Light mentioned on SiriusXM’s channel Volume shortly after the announcement, nobody is a “slam-dunk” for induction this year. Unlike the most recent ballots filled with critically-panned but hugely popular Classic Rock favorites (e.g., Chicago, Journey) that proved popular with both fans and the larger voting body, this year provides a sense of unpredictability. Personally, I really enjoyed this year’s batch of nominees. In a previous post, I correctly predicted eight nominees (I’m most excited to see my Roxy Music and Todd Rundgren came to fruition) and pleased to see more pioneering and foundational artists nominated this year. While I wish more women and people of color got nominated, I think the Nominating Committee is purposely stacking the cards and ensuring a clear path for induction for certain artists on this list. It shouldn’t have to be this way, but the out-of-touch and largely Baby Boomer voting body has created a dilemma for diverse classes. Although this year’s ballot is not perfect by any means (no nominees list will ever be), this year is a step in the right direction and hopefully the nominating committee continues on this trajectory.
This blog explores and analyzes this year’s Rock Hall nominees, trends, and ultimately concludes with my predictions for this year’s class.
Here is the list of the 15 Offical Nominees for the 2019 Rock Hall:
The Cure
Def Leppard
Devo
Janet Jackson
Kraftwerk
LL Cool J
MC5
Stevie Nicks
John Prine
Radiohead
Rage Against the Machine
Roxy Music
Rufus featuring Chaka Khan
Todd Rundgren
The Zombies
Here’s some of my thoughts on this year’s ballot and some trends I noticed:
British Alternative is making a breakthrough in the fan ballot
The Cure has performed phenomenally on this year’s ballot. And considering the nominating committee has played hot-potato with Alternative artists in recent years, this might be the first band to stick and have a strong likelihood for induction. Previously nominated back in 2012, this is The Cure’s first nomination since the creation of the fan ballot. Originally placing third and now in fifth place, The Cure has managed to be the first British alternative to consistently stay in the top five of the fan vote. Not even Depeche Mode or the Eurythmics (who have performed fairly well in previous years) can claim to finish this honor. Janet Jackson is currently in a distant sixth spot and unlikely to pass The Cure, unless her fans come in masses to vote for the pop icon. The Cure could be the first of its genre and era (1980s Alternative) to receive induction and could pave the way for other highly deserving bands and artists (Depeche Mode, The Smiths, Eurythmics, Kate Bush, etc.). Now maybe the Rock Hall could finally induct one of these pioneering bands.
Are We Nearing the End of Worthy pre-Woodstock Artists?
The Zombies and MC5 are the only two artists nominated this year who released their first record before 1970 (well technically, Todd Rungdren’s band Nazz released their debut record in 1968 but he didn’t go solo until 1970). The Zombies are particularly well-liked by both the Rock Hall’s Museum (there was a small Zombies exhibit that opened last year) and the Nominating Committee since this is their fourth nomination in five years. The Zombies are arguably the last deserving British Invasion band to be inducted into the Rock Hall and support keeps growing every year. I think the nominating committee purposely cleared the pathway for a Zombie induction with less 1960s artists and, more importantly, less Classic Rock. The Zombies do not have to worry about competing against the likes of The Moody Blues, Electric Light Orchestra, and Dire Straits. If they do not make it in this year, they never will. MC5, on the other hand, is a major snub since they are one of the earliest proto-punk bands in the late 1960s. With their fourth nomination and finishing dead-last on this fan vote, the chances of an MC5 induction are growing slimmer as time passes. I would’ve thought their 50th anniversary tour and the release of Wayne Kramer’s autobiography would give them a better chance, but boy was I wrong. I wonder if this year is a sign of the nominating committee moving past the decade. I think this is, sadly, the MC5’s last-ever HOF nomination. I don’t think the door is closely on artists getting nominations, but less will be nominated going forward. For some reason, I have a feeling a Zombies induction will lead to a Monkees nomination relatively soon.
LL Cool J is the Nominating Committee’s Clear Choice as the Next Hip-Hop Inductee
This is LL Cool J’s fifth HOF nomination in nine years, so he is clearly one of the nominating committee’s top priorities. He is rap’s first solo superstar and helped laid the foundation for the genre’s emerging popularity in the 1980s. In fact, it was mentioned that the rapper—at one point—got the most votes by the committee’s members many years ago. But LL Cool J has failed to resonate with voters, passing him up four times in the past. Last year he became the youngest Kennedy Center Honoree and its first-ever hip-hop recipient. The award means something and I think the HOF will try to do everything in its power to ensure LL Cool J gets inducted. In a video that Future Rock Legends posted a few weeks back, Questlove mentions that LL Cool J has “almost gotten in” but falls short for induction. With no other rapper or hip-hop artists on the ballot, LL Cool J has never had a better opportunity than this year. If he gets passed up yet again, maybe the Nominating Committee will look to other deserving artists from the genre (e.g., Eric B. & Rakim, Outkast, Salt N Pepa, A Tribe Called Quest). The Notorious B.I.G. is eligible very soon, but LL Cool J should really get in first.
Less Classic Rock is a Good Thing
I’m gonna keep this short and sweet: less Classic Rock is a good thing for this year’s ballot and hopefully continues in upcoming years. When compared to the last five previous ballots, this year’s ballot features far less Classic Rock artists. Really, Def Leppard and Stevie Nicks are the only two traditional “Classic Rock” artists and they sit atop of the fan vote at the moment. Although Todd Rungren, Roxy Music, and The Zombies have songs played on Classic Rock radio stations, they are not traditionally categorized as “Classic Rock” artists. It’s a sad day when Bad Company, The Doobie Brothers, and The J. Geils Band have a better chance of induction than Radiohead with this current voting body.
Is Chaka the New Chic?
The nominating committee has no idea what to do with Chaka Khan. Nominated twice for her solo work (2016, 2017) and three times with Rufus (2012, 2018, 2019), she can’t seem to catch a break with voters. Despite collaborating with some major heavyweights in the industry (such diverse collaborators as Quincy Jones, Ray Charles, Rick Wakeman, Steve Winwood, and of course Prince), her association with disco music is a stigma that cannot be shaken in the eyes of many Disco-hating voters (remember, it took Donna Summer five nominations and she didn’t get inducted until after her death). With a concert booked in South Africa on the date of the 2019 ceremony, Khan will likely not attend and will probably get passed over once again. Too bad considering she is one of the most influential female perfomers of her era not already inducted. With five nominations in seven years, Chaka Khan is a top priority for a core segment of the nominating committee. But she keeps falling short and her chances this year aren’t looking any better. Chic was nominated a record 11 times, and Khan seemed destined to become one of the most nominated performers in the HOF’s history. Still, I’d love to see the day when “I’m Every Woman” is the all-star jam in the wake of the #Metoo movement.
An Embrace for the Experimental and the Weird
This year’s ballot is loaded with artists who pushed the boundaries of rock music. Todd Rundgren never played by the rules and his music in the wake of Something/Anything? is a journeyman’s voyage through uncharted waters. Sometimes it worked and often didn’t, but I have to respect Rundgren’s determination to create music on his own terms. This is the same man who release a rap-electronica album in 1993 for crying out!
The Cure’s goth image and mopey lyrics inspired Emo kids and outsiders everywhere. Just take one look at frontman Robert Smitha and you’ll know what I mean.
Then there’s Kraftwerk, the pioneering German band who revolutionized music with their synthesized sounds that continue to inspire and influence present-day musicians, that features four men sitting behind computers. Although they are arguably the HOF’s biggest snub, I’m curious how a Kraftwerk HOF performance would play out. I wonder if that’s considered in the nominating committee’s meeting. Who knows, but Kraftwerk is arguably the biggest snub and this needs to be amended sooner than later.
Roxy Music, especially the first two albums that featured Brian Eno, sounds like a band from another planet and that doesn’t consider their bizarre and often mismatched outfits (Bryan Ferry in a full tux, other band members wearing leopard prints, leather, and makeup). After all, the opening cut on Roxy Music’s debut album is “Remake/Remodel” which serves as their statement for constantly pushing the boundaries and limits of rock and roll.
Speaking of strange attire, Devo’s surprise nomination is the HOF’s way of recognizing pioneering New Wave acts. I find it baffling the Akron-based band was nominated this year since the ceremony will take place in New York City. One would think the HOF would want them inducted in their home state of Ohio. But hopefully we can all agree they’re more than just the “Whip It” guys. Devo brought art-house and convoluted intellectualism to the masses. They are seminal figures in the New Wave era and don’t get enough credit for their work.
And finally, Radiohead who are still very much an active band has taken their music all over the map (everything from electronic music to jazz to “wall of sound” to hip-hop). I remember the polarizing response when Kid A (2000) was first released and now the album is hailed as a 21stcentury masterpiece. Remember the “In Rainbows” experiment from years ago where they released their album on their website and told fans to pay whatever they wanted? These guys are about as nonconformist as it gets.
Revolutionary Rock
The nominations of MC5 and Rage Against the Machine prove the HOF wants to badly induct an aggressive, fast-playing, and fiercely far-left political rock band. The MC5, while very deserving and highly influential, are currently ranked last in this year’s fan ballot and their prospects do not look any better this year. Maybe the ship has sailed for the Detroit-based band although their music is perhaps more relevant than ever before. Then there’s Rage Against the Machine who received their second-consecutive nomination. Tom Morello sits on the nominating committee and this nomination screams conflict of interest. But RATM stands out as one of the definitive bands of the 1990s and helped jump-start the nu-metal genre. I don’t know why the committee puts them on the ballot together because I think they’ll cancel each other yet again.
John Prine, or Better Known as This Year’s Left-Field Pick
Nobody, and I mean nobody, predicted John Prine in their writeups, blogs, and essays in the weeks and months before the HOF’s 2019 Nominees announcement. In hindsight, a Prine nomination is not all that surprising. He released the album Tree of Forgiveness this year and the album debuted in the top five on the Billboard Albums chart. Plus, his recent tour with Sturgill Simpson made him relevant once again. When the likes of Bob Dylan, Johnny Cash, and Bruce Springsteen hold your songwriting in high regard, they should be considered a strong candidate for induction. Prine’s gravelly voice and obtuse lyrics makes him a perfect fit as this year’s commercially-underwhelming yet highly critically-acclaimed singer-songwriter. Take a look at the production credits of Tree of Forgivenessand I guarantee one of them would induct and/or perform with Prine. A dark horse and quite frankly an eccentric pick, but don’t be surprised if Prine is one of the inductees.
Stevie Nicks Could be the First Two-Time Female HOF Inductee
Personally, I’m not digging Stevie Nicks’ nomination as a solo artist. Her work is largely a few overproduced albums in the early-to-mid 1980s and a string of duets/collaborations with famous musicians (e.g., Tom Petty and Don Henley). No offense, but Tina Turner and Carole King are lightyears ahead of Nicks’ solo work in terms of critical acclaim and commercial success. Both Turner and King’s inductions are complicated for different reasons: Turner was inducted with her abusive husband Ike in 1991 and King was inducted as a Non-Performer for her songwriting alongside her ex-husband Gerry Goffin in 1990. This could’ve been a way for the HOF to honor two highly deserving women and make them part of the “Clyde McPhatter” Club, aka the two-time inductees (or if you’re Eric Clapton, a three-time inductee). If Nicks gets inducted, it’ll be mainly for name recognition and nothing else. Why Stevie Nicks, but not any of one of the following: Connie Francis, Eurythmics, The Go-Go’s, Cyndi Lauper, Kate Bush, Pat Benatar, Mariah Carey, Bjork, Whitney Houston, and The Marvelettes?
My Predictions for the 2019 Class:
Def Leppard
Janet Jackson
Roxy Music
Stevie Nicks
The Zombies
Def Leppard: They are winning the fan vote by overwhelming numbers and definitely this year’s populist choice. Whatever critiques the band throws at the HOF (much documented over the years, especially from frontman Joe Elliott), they’ll get enough support from the rockist sector of the voting body. I’ll put it another way: if Bon Jovi got enough votes last year, then why not Def Leppard? Book their flight to NYC in the last week of March!
Possible Inductor: Mutt Lange
Possible Songs to Perform: Photograph, Pour Some Sugar on Me, Rock of Ages
Janet Jackson: In the wake of the news surrounding Les Moonves’ despicable treatment of Jackson post-Nipplegate, she is definitely the most talked-about artist on the ballot. She is also, without question, the most recognizable and successful artist nominated this year. The fact that Jackson has been eligible for over a decade and this is her third nomination is a shame. Also, a shout-out to the grassroots campaign #InductJanet which has raised awareness for her HOF candidancy. This is Janet’s year.
Possible Inductor: Missy Elliott
Possible Songs to Perform: Control, Nasty, Rhythm Nation
Roxy Music: I could be the lone person in the Rock Hall watcher community to predict Roxy Music this year, but I think they might end up getting the most votes of any artist nominated this year. Plain and simple, they are one of the HOF’s most egregious snubs (and also one of my all-time favorite bands). The band is ground-zero for Brian Eno’s recording career and the fact that Eno is not in the already in the HOF is an absolute joke. As a producer, a solo artist, or with Roxy Music, Eno belongs in the HOF in some capacity. He is one of the most respected people in the music industry and many voters will gladly cast a vote in his direction. And don’t forget frontman Bryan Ferry, one of rock music’s underappreciated and distinctive singers. If one has paid attention to the fan vote ballot over the last month (but especially in the last week or so), Roxy Music has passed Radiohead and Rage Against the Machine for the #8 position. While #8 is not ideal since only the artists in the top-five of the fan ballot get an extra vote, Roxy Music has done far better than I would’ve imagined. Besides Janet Jackson, I’ve seen more buzz and support for Roxy Music than any other nominated act this year. Imagine a Roxy Music reunion with Eno, Ferry, and the rest of the band for one-night only? This is why the HOF ceremonies could be incredible. Make it happen!
Possible Inductor: David Bryne
Possible Songs to Perform: Remake/Remodel, Love is the Drug, More Than This
Stevie Nicks: Whatever opinions I have about Nicks’ solo career, she will most likely be among this year’s inductees and make history as the first woman to be a two-time HOF inductee. I can envision Taylor Swift as her inductor (on a related note, Taylor performed with Def Leppard a decade ago, so maybe another performance between the two are in the works).
Possible Inductor: Taylor Swift
Possible Songs to Perform: Edge of Seventeen, Stop Draggin’ My Heart Around, Stand Back
The Zombies: The nominating committee only nominated two Pre-1970s artists this year: MC5 and The Zombies. Despite three failed inductions in the past five years, The Zombies’ prospects have never looked any better. In fact, I think they are lock for induction this year. Support has slowly grown for the Zombies in the past few years, especially when looking at their most recent performances on the fan ballot. They were #6 last year and #4 this year, so they’re gaining more traction. Plus, the HOF has a good repour with the Zombies with interviews and even a small exhibit on the band last year (and this is a strong induction the band would show up and perform at the ceremony). But I think the nominating committee has cleared the path for a Zombies induction: fewer Classic Rock artists to compete with, hardly any artists whose careers peaked in the 1960s, and of course the HOF’s love for both British Invasion and Psychedelic and/or Countercultural Music. Just think about it for a minute: there are how many new voting members of The Moody Blues, Bon Jovi, and Dire Straits (I doubt the Knopfler brothers would cast a ballot, but those who attended will most likely vote) in the last year? The larger voting body is flooded, for better or worse, with Baby Boomers who have fond memories of The Zombies from half-century ago. Even fellow 2019 Nominee John Prine believes the Zombies should get inducted and overdue for the honor. They are a sure thing this year.
Possible Inductor: Paul Shaffer
Possible Songs to Perform: She’s Not There, Time of the Season, Tell Her No
Although the Rock Hall typically only inducts five artists in the Performers category each year, sometimes the votes are so close that there’s a sixth inductee. With less Classic Rock and populist names on this year’s ballot, I think the final tallies are going to be very close. If there’s a sixth inductee, I think it could be any of the other nominees. In particular thou, I’m thinking either Todd Rundgren, The Cure, LL Cool J, or John Prine. These are all wild-card picks that could easily mess up my inductee predictions above. Below is a list of the other nominees in order in terms of who is most likely to receive induction this year and my reasonings:
LL Cool J: His fifth nomination in nine years, LL Cool J needs to gets inducted so the Nominating Committee can further explore the Hip-Hop genre. With the eligibilities of genre heavyweights such as The Notorious B.I.G., Jay-Z, and Eminem in the very near future, LL Cool J needs to get in ASAP and not passed over again. Plus, he’s from New York so a 2019 induction would be a homecoming of sorts for one of the genre’s most pioneering figures. I think he has a far better chance this year than most commentators, bloggers, and writers are giving him and he will most likely be the sixth inductee if there is one.
The Cure: They are performing far better than any of their 1980s alternative contemporaries and can be categorized as one of this year’s more traditional “rock” bands (aka Classic Rock). Someone’s gotta break through at some point and The Cure’s chances have never been better. Their induction could go either way this year and it begs whether the voting body will take them seriously (they’re not a fan of men who wear makeup, work in the goth subgenre, and write mopey and melancholic lyrics—I hope I’m wrong here).
John Prine: The larger voting body tends to usher in singer-songwriters the second they appear on the ballot. With high praise from current HOFers, Prine’s name might be obscure to the general public but he’s highly respected and influential. Although before the big populist push in the last five years, lesser-known singer-songwriters Bobby Womack, Dr. John, and Tom Waits got inducted after their first appearance on a Rock Hall ballot years ago. It’s not so much of a sure thing, but Prine is an Americana and Folk icon. Plus, the larger voting body loves anything related to Folk and Prine is a notable figure in the late 20th century. No matter how humble he appears about his Rock Hall nomination, don’t discount Prine’s chances.
Todd Rundgren: Although he is one of the most respected people in the music industry and known for his multifaceted work, I think Rundgren’s gonna get lost in the shuffle. His music is all over the map and it’s very hit-or-miss. Plus, he’s fought with a lot of musicians and apparently not the easily person to collaborate with. As Roy Trakin mentioned on a recent episode of Who Cares about the Rock Hall?, will voters distinguish his work as a performer to his producing and other backstage roles? I don’t think so and if he gets the votes, it’ll be based on name recognition and a cumulation of his entire career. Rundgren seems like a prime candidate for the Musical Excellence category and this is where I’d induct him. Just like Glenn Campbell (who should be in by now), Rundgren is one of Rock Music’s great journeymen who marches to the beat of his own drum (and bangs it all day, sorry I couldn’t resist).
Rage Against the Machine: If HBO wants an anti-Trump segment from one of the most politically polarizing and highly influential bands in modern music, then look no further. It’s clear Tom Morello wants to be a HOFer, he is after on the nominating committee and has plenty of friends and colleagues in the business. It’s only a matter of time for their induction and they are very deserving of the honor. But I feel their induction will be held off until next year in the midst of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
Rufus featuring Chaka Khan: Chaka Khan has a show in South Africa on the date of the HOF ceremony, so that takes her name on the table as a possible inductee this year. But I wouldn’t be surprised if she does gets inducted with all her connections and friendships in the music business. Plus, R&B music hasn’t done well with voters in the last decade (which is one of my biggest criticism of the current HOF ceremonies), so Rufus’ chances aren’t looking any better this year.
Radiohead: If it didn’t happen last year in their first year of eligibility, why would things change for them this year? Granted, they have kept a low-profile about their second HOF nomination, but I cannot imagine this current crop of voters voting for Radiohead in strides. It just isn’t happening this year and that’s a shame considering Radiohead’s massive influence on current music.
Kraftwerk: Despite being the HOF’s biggest snub, Kraftwerk will—sadly—once again get passed over. Although support has slowly grown over the years for their far-reaching achievements in the developments of various genres and trends (e.g., New Wave, EDM, Industrial), their induction cannot happen when many Baby Boomer-born voters despise synthesizers. A band that was heavily influenced by Kraftwerk such as Depeche Mode and Nine Inch Nails are far more likely to get inducted before the German-born pioneers.
Devo: A cult band with only one mainstream hit “Whip It” and often branded a novelty act, Devo’s nomination will likely result in a lukewarm response from the larger voting body.
MC5: I think the ship has sailed for Detroit’s most fiercely political far-left rebels. Despite support from HOF nominating committee bigwigs like Jon Landau and Tom Morello, they are dead-last in the current fan vote which is usually the kiss-of-death for a nominee’s momentum. It’s not gonna happen this year.
If I was a voter, I’d vote for the following:
The Cure
Janet Jackson
Kraftwerk
Radiohead
Roxy Music
For Fun, here is my Favorite Song from Each 2019 Nominees:
The Cure: In Between Days (1985)
Def Leppard: Photograph (1983)
Devo: Girl U Want (1980)
Janet Jackson: What Have You Done for Me Lately? (1986)
John Prine: Paradise (1971)
Kraftwerk: Trans-Europe Express (1978)
LL Cool J: I Can’t Live Without My Radio (1985)
MC5: The American Ruse (1970)
Radiohead: Karma Police (1997)
Rage Against the Machine: Guerilla Radio (1999)
Roxy Music: Street Life (1973)
Stevie Nicks: Stand Back (1983)
Todd Rundgren: Can We Still Be Friends? (1978)
The Zombies: She’s Not There (1964)
