There are 14 nominees vying for induction into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame this year, the lowest in well over a decade. Even though there are fewer names on the ballot, it’s also one of the most competitive in recent memory. All 14 have a legitimate claim for induction and each nominee has a plausible chance this year. As I will articulate below, some have better chances than others but that doesn’t take away their worthiness of the honor. There are 8 first-time nominees (including 2 nominated in their first year of eligibility) and I’m thinking they will have the advantage on this year’s ballots. In fact, I’m going “all in” and predicting the entire class will comprise of first-time nominees. There are just too many long-time snubs to bet against and, usually, the larger voting body tends to favor first-time nominees. We shall see when the class is officially announced (hopefully sometime next week).

Well, here goes nothing…these are my predictions -

Performers Category

Sheryl Crow: Her nomination (and perhaps eventual induction) is maybe the most important on this year’s ballot. There has not been an FYN inductee from the 90s yet (e.g., Beck, Dave Matthews Band, Soundgarden, Mary J. Blige) and this is a true litmus test for future potential nominees from that decade. If anyone can accomplish this feat, it’s Crow. She’s got the respect from inductees (look at her Threads album as proof!) and they are the largest segment of the voting body. She’s not a critical darling but her popularity outlasted most of her contemporaries. Given the number of hit singles and albums she’s amassed in her career, she is a prime candidate for the Rock Hall (even if she’s been eligible for barely 5 years…which speaks volumes about her candidacy) and someone who feels like a Hall of Famer. I would be genuinely surprised to see her get snubbed this year and she feels like a near-lock at this point.

Missy Elliott: At the last 6 ceremonies, there has been 4 first-ballot inductees who come from the hip-hop world (2pac, The Notorious B.I.G., Jay-Z, Eminem) and I think that trend will continue with Missy Elliott. I’ve said this on my podcast, but Elliott is one of the most groundbreaking and acclaimed artists in the history of the genre. There’s a clear “before and after” narrative with Elliott and she, perhaps more than anyone, is responsible for hip-hop’s continued relevance (in terms of innovations and commercial success) into the 21st century. Very few artists broke as many barriers and opened as many doors as Elliott. She’s viewed as a universally beloved figure who has continued to produce, collaborate and write music for others (especially young and up-and-coming artists). She would make history as the first female hip-hop artist inducted into the Rock Hall and, given all the firsts she’s done in her legendary career, I would bet on it happening.

Cyndi Lauper: Sometimes the word “icon” is overused but that word feels appropriate for Cyndi Lauper. Her solo career coincided with the rising popularity of MTV and, in turn, she became an icon on the channel. If you doubt Lauper’s candidacy for the Rock Hall, ask anyone to name 5 1980s artists and I would bet good money she is on many people’s lists. She had a unique sound and look that allowed her to stand out. And her songs hold up incredibly well! She’s one short of an EGOT for crying out loud! She’s supremely talented and widely respected by her peers. Nothing would bring me more joy than to see Lauper get inducted in her home state!

George Michael: He will be finishing at the top of this year’s fan vote and, if history tells us anything, that is a very good sign for Michael’s chances for induction. He dominated the charts at the apex of his popularity and became an iconoclast figure who created his own pathway to fame and fortune. Things didn’t always come easy for Michael but he persevered and became a towering figure in late 20th century pop music. His importance continues to grow with each passing year (and let’s not understate his importance as an activist for human rights and artists’ rights for a single second). The Rock Hall will create a beautiful and likely emotional tribute for him this October.

Willie Nelson: If there’s one artist that everyone can agree will get in this year, it’s Willie Nelson. An American treasure with a career that’s lasted almost 7 decades, he is the embodiment of persistence and musical excellence that led to the ever-lasting popularity of country music. The question of whether he’s “rock and roll” is sorta silly as he pioneered outlaw country and, in turn, influenced several rock artists (some of whom are inducted into the Rock Hall).  He is turning 90 this year and there are quite a few celebrations in his honor. A Rock Hall induction would be the icing on the cake. There’s a 99.99% chance of him getting in.

Warren Zevon: Despite the fact Zevon’s been eligible for nearly 3 decades, this is his first nomination. His name always came up whenever the question was posed “who’s the biggest Rock Hall snub?” and this oversight will hopefully be corrected soon. He’s admired by Hall of Famers who often covered his songs. His singular songwriting and vocal style allowed him to become a cult figure admired by so many artists in the last half-century. He is doing incredibly well on this year’s fan vote (he will finish at #3) and firmly has the support of critics (most of whom always had an affinity for Zevon). He’s also the only “classic rock” act on this year’s ballot and that only boosts his chances for induction. It seems like there’s at least one “it’s about damn time” nominee on the ballot each year who resonates with voters and Zevon fills that spot this year.

Wild Cards

The White Stripes: Perhaps the biggest uncertainty on this year’s ballot. On the one hand, they were a huge part of the early 00s rock scene who brought a minimalist approach back to rock and roll and became mainstream stars. But Jack and Meg White have been radio-silent since they were announced as nominees back in February. This could go either way honestly. But Jack is considered a modern guitar god so that certainly helps them a bit. There is a perception that they feel “too soon” and I’m getting that impression with the White Stripes. They “should” be first-year inductees but I’m not confident enough to predict them as inductees. We shall see next week.

Soundgarden: Despite all the legal troubles plaguing the band as of late, I would never rule out their chances for induction. Chris Cornell is still held in very high regard by so many of his peers. Maybe it’s just me, but I see his name and hear his music a lot in the past year. They should be the next 90s era band to get into the Rock Hall and they have a fighting chance this year.

The Rest…

Kate Bush: Are we really betting on her to receive induction based on one song being featured on a super-popular television show? Yes, it re-charted on the Billboard Hot 100 last year (peaking at #3) and has amassed nearly a billion listens on Spotify but I don’t know if that’s enough this time around. To put it another way, this is Bush’s fourth nomination and every ballot she’s appeared on has been super competitive. I love Kate with all my heart and she absolutely deserves it, but she hasn’t resonated with voters in the past. She is clearly a priority in the eyes of the nomination committee, and it’s been alluded “this is her year (somehow, someway)” mentality is at play too. My guess is if she doesn’t get in as a performer this year, she will be honored in the musical excellence category.

Iron Maiden: As seen with Judas Priest recently, the voters clearly have a problem with metal artists. And after Priest were inducted in the musical excellence category last year, I don’t think Iron Maiden’s chances are any better. And this is despite the fact they finished in the top five of the fan vote (yet again) and could lay claim as the biggest concert attraction on the entire ballot. Sad to say but expect to see their name on next year’s ballot.

Joy Division/New Order: There seems to be a lot of wishful thinking when it comes to Joy Division and New Order’s chances for induction this year. Yes, they are one of the most important and groundbreaking acts in the post-punk era. But this feels like an artist who will have to be nominated a few times, especially on less-competitive ballots, to stand out with voters. If it took multiple nominations for contemporaries The Cure and Depeche Mode, then I’d expect the same for Joy Division and New Order.

A Tribe Called Quest: I’m pleased to see them back on the ballot, but they don’t stand much of a chance this year. A quintessential example of a committee favorite that won’t likely resonate with the larger voting body. That doesn’t, of course, take away their contributions to hip-hop over the last 3 decades but I don’t see them getting any closer to the finish line.

Rage Against the Machine: Tom Morello once joked that Rage was “always the bridesmaid” as they have been nominated 4 previous times. Despite continued support from the committee members, I don’t think this is Rage’s year yet again. They are worthy of the honor (they’ve appeared in the top ten of all 3 version of my Top 100 Rock Hall Prospects list) but the committee needs to give Rage a break if they don’t get in. I’m calling this “Rage Fatigue” as voters are probably tired of seeing them on the ballot each year. The committee should nominate other 90s artists and see if they resonate with voters as Rage clearly isn’t.

The Spinners: Believe it or not, this might be the best opportunity for the Spinners to get inducted as performers. They are the only pure R&B act on the ballot and they really don’t have a lot of competition. They might be bound for the reimagined musical excellence category but that doesn’t matter at this point. Henry Fambrough, the last living surviving member, is turning 85 next month and godammit…I want to see him enjoy the honor while he’s still with us. I love these soul legends and I will always support them whenever they’re on the ballot, but I fear their time has passed to get in as performers.

*Usually I write a blog of the 5 artists I’d vote for if I had an actual ballot. I haven’t had a lot of free time as of late but, in case anyone is wondering, these would be my choices: Missy Elliott, Sheryl Crow, The Spinners, Cyndi Lauper and Soundgarden.

Side Categories Predictions

It’s frankly a crapshoot to predict who will get inducted into the side categories. The committee will likely throw a curveball our way so who knows what to expect. These are a few names that I think “could” receive induction this year. But, again, who knows. I’m listing 3 for each category for consistency.

• Early Influence: Big Mama Thornton, Django Reinhardt, Johnny Ace

• Musical Excellence: Kate Bush, Carole Kaye, Mick Ronson

• Non-Performers: Rick Rubin, Barrett Strong & Norman Whitfield, Estelle Axton

There will be a “reaction to the 2023 class” episode of my podcast when the class is officially announced. Like last year, we will record the episode that same day and it will be released shortly thereafter.

Thank you for reading and hopefully the big announcement is right around the corner!