Two months after the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame announced its Class of 2021 nominees, now is the time to predict who I believe will chosen as this year’s inductees. In case you need a refresher, this year’s nominees are Mary J. Blige, Kate Bush, Devo, Foo Fighters, The Go-Go’s, Iron Maiden, Jay-Z, Chaka Khan, Carole King, Fela Kuti, LL Cool J, New York Dolls, Rage Against the Machine, Todd Rundgren, Tina Turner and Dionne Warwick. This is the most diverse group of nominees in quite some time, and this is really a step in the right direction for the Rock Hall. It’s also a very difficult ballot to predict as this features a stacked list of qualified candidates who are Grammy Lifetime Achievement winners, Kennedy Center Honorees and even have music preserved in the Library of Congress’ National Recording Registry. Some have even performed at presidential inaugurations. There’s definitely a case for everyone on this year’s ballot and I’m optimistic it will be a great class no matter how the results turn out. 

I’ve noticed a lot of people using the word “lock” for many of the artists on this year’s ballot. In a world where Radiohead, arguably the most critically-acclaimed band of the last three decades, did not receive induction in their first year of eligibility, I don’t believe anyone can be considered a lock anymore. I avoid using that word for many reasons but when it comes to the Rock Hall, nothing is guaranteed. I really want to discourage people from saying anyone is a “lock” because if it doesn’t an induction, then that could lead to disappointment and further frustration at this institution. In a post-Radiohead Rock Hall-snubbed world, I don’t believe anyone is a surefire bet until I hear Greg Harris announce the inductees next month.

I ranked the nominees in order of their likeliness for induction. I envision there will be at least 6 inductees for the Class of 2021. There’s so much depth on this year’s ballot that I believe the final votes will be very close and there’s a strong likelihood a seventh inductee will added (just like the 2019 ceremony). After the crappy year we all experienced, it would be great if there was a bigger class to celebrate live and in-person this October.

Class of 2021 Predictions

Tina Turner: Probably the biggest no-brainer on this year’s ballot and is an artist pegged as the #1 Rock Hall Prospect earlier this year and rightfully so. On the heels of a successful Broadway musical based on her life and music and a critically acclaimed documentary on HBO, Tina Turner is back in the limelight and I could not be more thrilled. I’ve seen more actual voters cast votes for Turner than any artist this year and she’s consistently held the top two spots on the fan vote over the last two months (the most consistent showing of any nominated artist on this year’s fan vote). Even though Stevie Nicks was the first woman elected twice into the Rock Hall, Turner will likely be the first woman to finish at the top of the fan vote and that is something not even Nicks could achieve. It doesn’t matter if she accepts the award from her home in Switzerland, it will be great to see Turner honored for her trailblazing accomplishments as a solo artist. And if she doesn’t get inducted this year, it’s the crime of the century.

Jay-Z: Despite his lackluster performance on this year’s fan vote (he’s currently in last place), Jay-Z is simply too big of a name for the Rock Hall to ignore in his first year of eligibility. Hip-hop artists have never performed well on the fan vote, so measuring that as an indicator for predicting the actual classes is sorta misguided. I could see a scenario, similar to Radiohead in 2018, where voters think he’s such a shoo-in that they don’t vote for him and he just misses out. But on the heels of recent inductees 2Pac and The Notorious B.I.G. (both elected FYE too), it’s really doubtful those same voters would pass up the opportunity to vote for Jay-Z as soon as he’s eligible. Critics will likely include him on their ballots as he’s widely considered one of the most acclaimed rappers of all time and has 3 (!) albums on Rolling Stone’s recently revised 500 Greatest Albums list. He is one of the very few artists to appear on the same publication’s Top 100 Artists of All Time list that isn’t already inducted into the Hall. To put it another way, the Rock Hall needs Jay-Z and not the other way around. Based on the sheer fact that the nomination committee also put LL Cool J on this year’s ballot proves they too believe Jay-Z is a slam-dunk for induction. They haven’t nominated two hip-hop artists in nearly 7 years and usually there’s only one to avoid vote splitting. His induction will be bittersweet as it takes place in Cleveland and not at Brooklyn’s Barclays Center (he was an investor at one point) but he’s the next surest bet on this list.

Carole King: Carole King is a talented force of nature who influenced countless singer-songwriters over the last half-century. She also possesses one of the most respected songbooks in rock and roll history and remains a beacon of inspiration for millions. Her first nomination, which happened in 1989 (aka, the year I was born), is the longest span between nominations in Hall history. It’s a reminder that she’s beyond overdue for legendary solo career. If all she ever recorded was Tapestry, that alone would cement King’s place in the Rock Hall as a performer. Akin to Tina Turner on this year’s ballot, voters will likely sigh and say “she’s not already in?” and happily cast a vote for her. She even has the support from the curmudgeon Terry Sylvester which makes me believe the voting body’s old guard will vote for her in spades. It’s also hard to justify any Lilith Fair-era performer’s chances when someone as iconic and significant as King still isn’t honored for her performing career. If inducted, King would be become only the second person to receive a second induction in two separate categories (the other person being Ringo Starr).

The Go-Go’s: Perhaps more than any currently-eligible artist, The Go-Go’s have been the most outspoken on their Rock Hall snub. Thanks in large part to last year’s documentary on the pioneering all-female rock band, they’ve built a substantial case for their nomination. They have widespread appeal from lots of different demographics and managed to crack into the top 3 of this year’s fan vote. Among this year’s nominees, nobody has promoted their nomination as loudly and proudly as The Go-Go’s and it’s clearly working for them. I’ve seen tons of votes for them from actual voters on social media and this seems to be their year. It would also be great to see the Rock Hall induct five living women, but also become voters for life. Bet on them to be the next new wave-era act represented in this year’s class and will likely pave the way for The B-52’s and Duran Duran (among others) to finally appear on the ballot. And thanks to their infectious pop-based hits, they are the perfect opener for this year’s ceremony. They’ll bring the beat and more importantly the energy that will be needed to get the crowd hyped. 

Foo Fighters: I’m not the hugest Foo Fighters fan and their nomination in their first year of eligibility is likely too premature, but they’re also one of the biggest rock bands of the last quarter-century. I see the Foo Fighters as this year’s Doobie Brothers: both bands didn’t break new ground but they created songs that became the soundtrack for many people’s lives. That is one of the signifiers for any prospective Rock Hall candidate, regardless of personal music tastes. With the Rock Hall’s recent announcement that they will be moving the Cleveland ceremonies to the much-bigger Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, they need a headliner to close the show and it will likely be the Foo Fighters. Plus, I doubt the voting body won’t jump on the opportunity to make Dave Grohl the only second person to be twice inducted in their first year of eligibility. The only other person to accomplish this rare distinction is John Lennon. I wouldn’t be entirely shocked (they might not have enough support from the critics) if they don’t get inducted this year, but I expect it to happen.

Rage Against the Machine: Akin to Depeche Mode and Janet Jackson (where the nomination committee nominates them two consecutive years, holds them off a year and then re-nominates them for a third time to earn induction), I think this is Rage Against the Machine’s year. They had a massive reunion tour scheduled last year but that was scrapped due to the ongoing pandemic. It would’ve been a great reminder that they’re still not in the Rock Hall, which I likely suspect was one of the main reasons for the tour, but hopefully they tour again soon. Of all of the artists nominated on this year’s ballot, they’ve been the least discussed and that probably works more in their favor. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if they got inducted as they have both critical and peer respect to enter the Rock Hall. I see them following in the same footsteps of Radiohead and Nine Inch Nails as the next critically-adored and hugely-influential rock band from the 90s (ironically it took those other two a few nominations to eventually get in). And if you follow and/or listen to SiriusXM, they recently added three (!) new channels overseen by Tom Morello and he still hosts his One Man Revolution weekly show on the Lithium channel. There’s also a new limited engagement channel “Guitar Greats” and he’s mentioned alongside a lineup of mostly-Hall inducted guitarists. From that standpoint alone, it seems like the momentum is on RATM’s side and the signs are everywhere. This doesn’t even factor the band’s radical leftist politics which feel more relevant than ever before. If there’s a 90s band getting in this year, I’d bet on Rage. 

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Todd Rundgren: Could the third time be the charm for Todd Rundgren? This is his third consecutive nomination and obviously he has a lot of support from the nomination committee. As perhaps the sole classic rock artist on this year’s ballot, the committee has created a clear path for Rundgren. He’s a musician’s musician with legions of fans who plea their devotion to Rundgren. If I had to guess, this is Rundgren’s year and he will be finally inducted. Given Rundgren’s contemptuous feelings towards the Rock Hall, I doubt he shows up to the ceremony. But if there’s a larger class (I believe there will be 6-7 inductees as the votes will probably be very close), then they don’t have to spend a ton of time on him during the ceremony. And if he doesn’t get chosen for the Performers category yet again, he’s a perfect candidate for the Musical Excellence category and they can move on to other worthy artists waiting for a nomination.

New York Dolls: They’re one of the wildcards on this year’s ballot and I could see it going either way. Those who support the New York Dolls’ candidacy believe they’re long overdue and it probably served them well to have a long absence from their prior nomination (exactly two decades ago). The Dolls could easily be the next glam rock band enshrined on the heels of Roxy Music and T. Rex’s recent inductions. Much like those two bands, the critics love them and inductees (e.g., Guns N’ Roses, Blondie, Kiss, Ramones, Sex Pistols) will sing the Dolls’ praises to no end. Most of those bands probably wouldn’t exist if it wasn’t for the Dolls. They likely have the minimum number of votes for induction. But unlike Roxy and T. Rex, the Dolls never had a breakthrough moment in terms of commercial success. It could easily happen, but I think they’ll suffer a similar fate to their proto-punk contemporaries MC5 and they’ll be passed over this year. There is a documentary on David Johansen from Martin Scorsese in the works (slated to be released next year) and I believe that will afford them a better opportunity down the road.

Iron Maiden: I initially ranked Iron Maiden much lower on this list, but they have a few things going for them. Unlike last year’s ballot, Maiden is the only metal band nominated this year and the committee essentially cleared the lane for them in that regard. They are also an artist that fans clearly want inducted as they are the only ones to poll in the top five on the museum’s kiosk votes in both years of its existence. The metal stigma from the larger voting body is my hesitation to select them among the top 5-7 but it could easily happen. I’ve been paralleling their nomination to Rush, who follows a similar trajectory of a consistently successful genre band who has a devoted cult-like following. And how Rush finally broke ground for more progressive rock bands to get nominated and eventually inducted (Yes and Moody Blues), the same could happen for Iron Maiden and metal in the Hall. 

Dionne Warwick: She’s absolutely a towering figure in pop music and a legacy artist who should waltz right into the Rock Hall the same way Joan Baez and Nina Simone did in recent years. But Warwick is facing stiff competition this year (e.g., Tina Turner, Carole King) and I haven’t seen many (if any) votes for her from those who posted their ballots so far. Perhaps the thrill is gone for Warwick who saw a career resurgence thanks to her buzzworthy tweets late last year. It pains me to say this but I don’t see Warwick getting inducted this year. I believe there are two things working against her: (1) some might not consider Warwick “rock and roll” enough for the Hall (which is foolish and wrong) and (2) her former collaborators Burt Bacharach and Hal David are still not inducted. I don’t think those things should matter but I don’t see the critics supporting her candidacy and usually you need that to get into the Rock Hall. Roy Trakin’s refusal to vote for Warwick confirmed my suspicions. I think she’ll come back next year.

LL Cool J: This is LL’s 6th nomination and it’s completely ridiculous he’s still not inducted into the Rock Hall. Lyor Cohen, a member of the Rock Hall’s board of directors, wrote a recent op-ed and felt LL’s exclusion “speaks to the limitations of too many of the HOF’s voters.” With Jay-Z also occupying a spot on this year’s ballot, it could go one of two ways for LL: (1) the same voters who vote for Jay-Z (who’s thought by most to be a shoo-in) and finally earns induction or (2) LL gets shut out yet again. Critics were always lukewarm on LL and I think that’s causing him to miss out yet again. 

Chaka Khan: We feel for you Chaka Khan. This is her 7th (!) nomination, combined with her former band Rufus and as a solo artist, and it’s clear the nomination committee wants her inducted (she’s only one of two nominees to receive a nomination from last year’s batch). Khan should already be an inductee, but she seems to get passed over each and every year. And she’s always appeared on the most competitive ballots and seems to get lost in the shuffle. With so many R&B and Pop singers appearing on this year’s ballot, I sadly don’t see the Queen of Funk’s chances getting any better. 

Fela Kuti: Definitely the biggest surprise on this year’s ballot but it’s not entirely shocking. Members of the nomination committee have sung Fela Kuti’s praises for years (e.g., Amy Linden, Questlove, Tom Morello) and he’s beloved musical icon. Many critics will happily cast a vote for the father of Afro-Beat, but it will be an uphill battle to receive induction amongst the members of the larger voting body. Yes, he’s widely-respected by some of the biggest names in rock history (e.g., Paul McCartney, David Bryne, Peter Gabriel) but I suspect he’ll come up short for induction. I wanna be completely wrong here and think he’s an international icon on the same level as Bob Marley, but Kuti never really had a breakthrough moment here in the U.S. and I think the Rock Hall might be too American-eccentric for Kuti to get inducted right away. But again I hope I’m wrong here. I’m just pleased a lot people are discovering Kuti’s amazing body of work which is a win in its own right.

Devo: Devo is more than just a rock band: it’s a philosophy, a way of life. They combined the attitude of punk and the sounds of electronica to become one of the definitive new wave bands of their time. Despite their contemporaries The Cure and Depeche Mode getting inducted in recent years, Devo’s chances don’t look great this year. With their red energy-dome hats and yellow jumpsuits, Devo is perhaps too gimmicky for a core segment of the larger voting body who likely see them as one-hit wonders. It’s clear the home state of Ohio wants them inducted (April 1st was “Devo Day” in their hometown Akron) and they’ve been pushing their nomination over the last few weeks on social media. But that came far too late in the process to be fully effective. And for the record, I love Devo but it will likely take multiple nominations for this to happen.

Kate Bush: Kate Bush is a trailblazing figure in pop music and there’s no one quite like her.  She meets nearly every criteria to earn induction into the Rock Hall: brilliant songwriter, multi-instrumentalist, a flare for the theatrics and a groundbreaking master of studio recording. Despite her widespread influence and admiration from artists across popular music, Bush is perhaps too artistic and singular to waltz right into the Rock Hall. Look, I’d vote for Bush in a heartbeat if I had a ballot but she’s likely to get lost in the shuffle again. 

Mary J. Blige: She’s undeniably talented and successful, after all she’s the undisputed “Queen of Hip-Hop Soul.” It’s impossible to measure Blige’s importance in the landscape of 90s R&B and she’s influenced so many of today’s current music stars (ranging from Rihanna to Solange). She’s won 9 Grammys and nominated in genre categories as diverse as R&B, Pop, Gospel, Rap and Dance. She’s also a multi-time Oscar nominee who’s worked with so many big names in the music industry. Many of Blige’s primary influences, including fellow nominee Chaka Khan, are still missing from the Hall and I don’t like her chances this year. It will, unfortunately, take a few nominations to build more momentum.

My Class of 2021 predictions are Tina Turner, Jay-Z, Carole King, The Go-Go’s, Foo Fighters and Rage Against the Machine. And if there’s a 7th spot, Todd Rundgren. The other wildcards are New York Dolls, Iron Maiden and Dionne Warwick.

Ballots from the larger voting body are due on May 3 and the fan vote ends on May 7, so I expect the final list of inductees to be announced on Wednesday May 12 (or later that week).