A lot of things have changed since the last time the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame unveiled a nominations ballot in October 2019. An ongoing pandemic rocked the institution to its core, to the point they cancelled their induction ceremony and even had to close the museum multiples throughout the last year. Just an overall horrid year that only seemed to get worse with each passing day. More importantly, they shifted their schedule when the Nominating Committee meets annually to determine that year’s latest batch of nominees. Usually they meet sometime after Labor Day and the announcement is approx. 1 month later in early-to-mid October, but they apparently met (virtually? I wonder if our Mock Nom Com Project proved to them this process could work rather well) late last month to determine the 2021 class. I didn’t expect the nominees to be announced until mid-to-late February but I was delightfully surprised when they announced it on February 10.

I always have low expectations whenever the nominations announcement happens. I don’t like to get my hopes up and honestly if I did, I know they’ll likely let me down. When I posted my predictions back in October, I wasn’t sure how to approach creating a list of prospective candidates when the world is essentially at a standstill. Given there’s no concerts happening and music-related news is minimal at best, it’s tough to gage the mindset of the nominating committee this year. With John Sykes now the chairman of the Rock Hall, I’ll admit I was skeptical of how he would bring change to the largely stagnant institution. A step in the right direction occurred when he appointed 5 people, including women and people of color, to the institution’s board of directors last February. But I absolutely love this batch of nominees for the prospective class of 2021.

In case you missed it, this year’s nominees are: Mary J. Blige, Kate Bush, Devo, Foo Fighters, The Go-Go’s, Iron Maiden, Jay-Z, Chaka Khan, Fela Kuti, LL Cool J, New York Dolls, Carole King, Rage Against the Machine, Todd Rundgren, Tina Turner and Dionne Warwick.

It’s truly a diverse list of artists across popular music over the last 60+ years that features a healthy amount of genre, gender and racial representation. It’s a win-win on so many fronts. After thinking about this ballot over the last several days, I wanted to list several trends and topics I feel are the most important. It’s definitely not comprehensive by any means but I wanted to let my readers know my initial thoughts on this year’s nominees:

Women to the forefront! A record 7 nominees are women (solo and all-female band). Although Evelyn McDonnell reported that only 24.44% (barely a quarter) of the total nominees are women, it’s still a huge improvement from previous years where only (at best) 3 women appeared on the same ballot. There is a strong possibility this could be the first female-majority class in Rock Hall history. There’s still plenty of work that needs to be done to improve the pitiful 7.63% statistic of total female Rock Hall inductees, but this year’s ballot is a good start.

A racially diverse list: Half of this year’s nominees are black, something that hasn’t happened in ages (side note: RATM’s Tom Morello is black and Zack De La Rocha is of Mexican descent and Foo Fighters’ Pat Smear is black and self-identities as Native American). Perhaps the Committee’s response to the polarizing political and social climate of the past year, racial and gender diversity appears to be one of the main tenets from this year’s ballot. This is the first year under John Sykes’ leadership and it’s already promising.

FYE Nominees: As expected, Jay-Z and Foo Fighters scored nominations in their first year of eligibility. Jay-Z is about as much of a lock as one can imagine; just simply too popular and acclaimed to be ignored. The Foo Fighters also stand a good chance to receive induction this year. They have the right amount of industry respect and acclaim, especially from rock’s elder statesmen, that will likely waltz right into the Hall. Now should they get in ahead of their contemporaries such as Beck, Smashing Pumpkins and Soundgarden is a completely different story. But I’d bet the house these two artists will get join an exclusive list of FYE Rock Hall inductees.

Potential Two-Timers: Tina Turner, Carole King and Dave Grohl could be the next two-time Rock Hall inductees and join the infamous “Clyde McPhatter Club.” Turner and King, if inducted, would become the second and third women to be inducted twice after Stevie Nicks’ 2019 induction. King would also be only the second two-timer to get inducted outside the Performers category (Ringo Starr was given the Musical Excellence award in 2015). Grohl would become only the second inductee to receive induction in their first year of eligibility (John Lennon is the only person to accomplish this feat so far). It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if all three got inducted this year. I’m particularly rooting for Turner and King who I feel are amongst the most overdue for induction and its borderline criminal they’re finally receiving recognition for their trailblazing solo careers.

None of last year’s fan vote winners are nominated in 2021: Dave Matthews Band, Pat Benatar, Soundgarden and Judas Priest all finished in the top five of last year’s online fan vote but none of them received a nomination this year. Perhaps they didn’t gather enough votes from the larger voting body to justify a second consecutive nomination, but it’s very telling that none of them returned to the ballot. One thing I noticed on Wednesday, the day of the announcement, was Pat Benatar’s name was trending on Twitter. This should be the Committee’s cue to probably put Benatar back on the ballot next year, especially if the likes of The Go-Go’s and Tina Turner receive induction.

Only 2 Returning Nominees from Last Year’s Ballot: Usually, on average, 4-6 artists return to the ballot after failing to receive enough votes the previous year. This year only two make reappearances: Todd Rundgren and Chaka Khan. Well, technically, Khan was nominated alongside her former band Rufus the last 3 years but I’m still counting it. It’s almost a game of semantics at this point and this is her 7th (!) overall nomination (only Chic has more nominations than Khan). This is Rundgren’s third consecutive nomination and clearly has the support from a core segment of the committee. Perhaps they could push past the finish line and get in this time around. But clearly the committee wanted to hit the “reset” button this year as none of the usual suspects (e.g., Kraftwerk, MC5) came back.

Long-Awaited Returns: Two artists were nominated decades ago and finally received a second nomination: Carole King and New York Dolls. King was first nominated as a Performer for the class of 1989 (also the same year I was born) and was swiftly inducted alongside her former husband and songwriting partner Gerry Goffin the next year. She hasn’t been nominated until this year and honestly it’s correcting a wrong that should’ve happened decades ago. The New York Dolls, on the other hand, received a nomination for the class of 2001 and went awol from the ballot for two full decades. They’re hugely influential to many current Hall inductees (e.g., Blondie, Guns N Roses, Sex Pistols) and I’m sure many will cast votes for them. They’re definitely one of the wildcards that could sneak in this year.

A Mostly Alive List of Nominees: Several of last year’s nominees were deceased, but this year is a totally different story. The only deceased nominees are Fela Kuti, Devo’s Bob Casale and Alan Meyers, Iron Maiden’s Clive Burr and all the New York Dolls except David Johansson. Of the 45 total people nominated, only 8 are deceased (only 17.78%). If there’s a live ceremony this year, then chances are good most could show up and perform. And whichever living artists receive induction will, of course, get ballots for life and could potentially shake up the results in forthcoming years.  

“Friends of the Hall”: Mary J. Blige (2001/2018), Dave Grohl/Taylor Hawkins (Foo Fighters) (2001, 2013), Tina Turner (1989), Jay-Z (2007), Chaka Khan (1991), LL Cool J (2012), Carole King (2010, 2012) and Tom Morello (RATM) (2003, 2014) served as inductors at past ceremonies. Although it’s not always the case, but usually those who show up to these events are most often on the committee’s radar and eventually receive induction.

Conflicts of Interest? Both Tom Morello and Dave Grohl are members of the nominating committee and it just so happens both their bands—Rage Against the Machine and Foo Fighters—are on this year’s ballot. Perhaps it’s just me, but it feels a bit wrong on so many levels. And this isn’t to suggest these bands are unworthy (rather the opposite), but it’s a sign of nepotism that isn’t a good look for the Hall. Personally, I’ve always feel that if your band is eligible for induction into the Rock Hall then you should temporarily barred from serving on the committee. It makes sense on a few fronts and some readers may disagree, but it feels like the right thing to do.

A Far Less-English Ballot: Unlike the last few years, the 2021 class only features two English nominees: Kate Bush and Iron Maiden. In 2019, 5 of the 7 inductees were English and even last year there were a slew of English nominees (Depeche Mode and T. Rex earned induction). Perhaps it’s just a coincidence that most of this year’s nominees are American-born, but this is something that I noticed when the nominations were announced last week.  

Clearing the Lane for Classic Rock, Metal and New Wave: This year’s ballot is a fundamental shift away from the classic rock artists that have dominated Rock Hall ballots over the past decade. It’s a welcoming development as the very notion of rock and roll continuously changes. Rock purists, aka the likes of Eddie Trunk, will hate this ballot and call it weak. God forbid, they’ll likely have to vote for a woman this year or worse men who challenge traditional masculine norms. Anyway, the committee placed several hard rock and metal artists amongst one another and almost all of them cancelled each other out. They decided to put only a select few this time around: Iron Maiden as the sole metal representative and Todd Rundgren is the only “pure” classic rock artist nominated. They basically cleared paths for their induction, even if the voting body despises metal and Rundgren simply isn’t resonating with voters. I definitely wouldn’t count them out just yet, but they have an uphill battle for induction. Similarly, the committee has given clear lanes for new wave favorites Devo and The Go-Go’s. Like hip-hop, the committee has been very selective of which new wave/classic alternative artists as of late and they’ve been successful getting The Cure and Depeche Mode inducted the last two years. Both these bands stand a good chance, although The Go-Go’s seem to have the “beat,” aka momentum, for induction.

Stacking Up on Hip-Hop and R&B Artists: Two genres that have been neglected by the committee in recent years is given special attention this year. Almost everyone knew Jay-Z was going to be on the ballot this year and most assumed he’d be the sole representative from hip-hop but that wasn’t the case. LL Cool J also is also a nominee and this is his 6th (!) nomination which speaks volumes of the committee’s tireless support to get the rapper inducted. Usually the committee has been very selective of choosing only one hip-hop artist each year and this is the first time since 2014 that multiple hip-hop artists appear on the same ballot. Jay-Z seems like a lock for induction so it’s rather fascinating the committee decided to also nominate LL. Perhaps they might think the same voters for Jay-Z will also cast votes for LL which could result in the first Rock Hall class with multiple hip-hop inductees. Given how well LL has apparently done in past years, it’s plausible. Similarly, the committee has nominated 4 female R&B stars this year: Tina Turner, Chaka Khan, Dionne Warwick and Mary J. Blige might be fighting for the same votes and could split the votes (Turner seems inevitable thou). I say, put all 4 women in the Rock Hall because they’re absolutely deserving. They are all, after all, queens in their own right: “The Queen of Rock & Roll” (Turner), “The Queen of Funk” (Khan), “The Queen of Hip-Hop-Soul” (Blige)” and “The Queen of Twitter” (Warwick).

Did the Rock Hall’s “It’s Been Said All Along” Exhibit at the Museum Have Any Influence? Part of the reason why I predicted Gil-Scott Heron for this year’s ballot is because he’s one of the few non-Rock Hall inductees heavily featured at the museum’s recent exhibit “It’s Been Said All Along.” Focusing on black artists and their continuous fight for equality and civil rights, the exhibit is a response to our currently polarized social and political climate and how these artists use their music to inspire change. 2018 inductee Nina Simone once famously said, “An artist’s duty, as far as I’m concerned, is to reflect the times” and she’s absolutely right. Choosing politically-motivated artists such as Fela Kuti and Rage Against the Machine (the latter is represented in the exhibit), it made me wonder if the exhibit had any influence on the committee. Maybe it didn’t but representation matters.

The Ballot’s Gone International: Fela Kuti’s nomination is important on several fronts. Kuti pioneered Afrobeat throughout the 1970s and became one of the towering figures of world music in the late 20th century. I applaud the committee’s decision to put him on the ballot. His music employs complex musical arrangements and much of his work is very lengthy and challenging. He is Nigeria’s musical ambassador that popularized Afrobeat much the same way Bob Marley brought Reggae to a global audience. Their names became synonymous not only with a country’s defining musical genre, but also as fierce activists in politically and socially repressed nations. Kuti might lack the name recognization but he’s every bit as important and revolutionary as Marley. Hopefully more international artists are considered for the Rock Hall in the coming years. And Kuti got a decent chance to be inducted. There’s at least a dozen inductees who were either influenced or praised the late Nigerian musician’s work. And the critics adore him, so the votes are essentially there. Don’t sleep on this one because it could easily happen. He currently sits at #1 on the fan vote which happened thanks a huge push on social media (which is an entirely different story in its own right). Whether he can retain the top spot until the end of April is datable, but his performance on the fan vote is nothing short of phenomenal. But the very notion that the committee has the courageousness to put him on the ballot must be praised.

Dionne Warwick is the Sole Representative of the 1960s: Dionne Warwick is a welcoming presence on this year’s ballot. The committee in the last few years has “cleared out the 60s,” in that they’ve been nominating 1, maybe 2 pre-70s artists on the ballot. Sometimes it works (as in the case of The Zombies) and other times not so much (MC5). Warwick was a force on the pop and soul charts throughout the 1960s thanks in large part to her collaborations with the team of Burt Bacharach and Hal David. Unlike the MC5, Warwick is a household name with a truckload of songs that the general public knows. Personally, I see her occupying the “well-respected and long overdue female artist” spot reserved for the likes of Joan Baez and Nina Simone. In theory, she should be a shoo-in and obvious choice; she’s been eligible for over three decades and this is, shockingly, her first nomination. Warwick’s chances will also boil down to whether she is “rock” enough for induction into the Rock Hall (yes she is). They cleared the lane for Warwick and, hopefully, she earns her rightful place alongside her “friends.”

Mary J. Blige is the First 90s-era R&B Nominee: Many Rock Hall pundits thought Mariah Carey would be selected as a nominee this year; however, Mary J. Blige is the decade’s first soul performer to earn a Rock Hall nomination. She scored a nomination ahead of her contemporaries such as TLC, Aaliyah and Boyz II Men and that’s just incredible. Admittedly, I didn’t think the committee would nominate Blige this soon, especially when some of Blige’s influences aren’t inducted yet (including Chaka Khan, who is also a nominee this year), but she’s a welcoming choice. But in hindsight, Blige’s nomination isn’t much of a surprise: she’s served as an inductor twice (2001, 2018) and has collaborated with several high-profile inductees over the years. I’m stoked to see her on the ballot and she has enough industry connections and critical praise to earn induction. She might not get in this year but expect to see her again. But for now, Mary J. is the spotlight tonight and that’s enough of a cause for a celebration.

My Prospects Project and the 2021 Nominees: I recently completed my “Top 100 Rock Hall Prospects Project” and 12 artists from my list are nominated this year: Tina Turner (#1), LL Cool J (#5), Kate Bush (#7), Rage Against the Machine (#8), Carole King (#10), Chaka Khan (with Rufus, but I’m counting it) (#12), Iron Maiden (#27), The Go-Go’s (#34), Dionne Warwick (#36), Devo (#43), New York Dolls (#55) and Mary J. Blige (#66). Keep in mind that Foo Fighters and Jay-Z were not eligible at the time the project started and I thought Todd Rundgren should be considered more for his producing career in the Non-Performers category. In all honesty, Fela Kuti is the only artist I technically overlooked for my project (and I’m kicking myself now for not selecting him; an FYI: he was on the shortlist). Half of my top-ten appear on this year’s ballot which I still find astounding and can’t believe happened.  

Will This Year’s Fan Vote Winners Closely Reflect the Actual 2021 Class? This is a question I’ve been pondering for the last few days. Unlike last year where only one fan vote winner received induction and the others didn’t, this year will likely be a different story. Another blog will come in the coming weeks, but there’s probably 2-3 locks that are sitting in the top-five of the fan vote. Although the fan vote is essentially meaningless, I think it’s often a good snapshot of how the larger voting often thinks each year. We shall see when the results are revealed in May.

More blogs on the Rock Hall’s class of 2021 nominees will be published over the next several weeks. Let’s keep the conversation going in the comments section below and/or on Twitter.